Valuation Overview

Growth Story

Over the next few years, revenue is expected to grow by -0.79%, lower than industry average of 9.02%.

Growth Trajectory

Profitability

In the growth phase company makes 11.37% profit on every dollar of sales, lower than industry average of 17.41%.

Profitability Trajectory

Risk Profile

Investors expect at least 7.48% return to justify the risk of holding stock.

Risk vs Return

Required Return (Cost of Capital) (%)
Return on Invested Capital (%)

Financial Health Overview

Enterprise Value
177.54B USD
Equity Value
156.60B USD
FCF Yield
238.55%
Average ROIC
25.05%
Cost of Capital
7.96%
P/E Ratio
16.10x
Financial MetricMost Recent 12 months (USD)Previous Year (USD)
Revenues132.97B USD143.15B USD
Operating Income or EBIT4.13B USD3.76B USD
Interest Expense977M USD947M USD
Book Value Of Equity27.49B USD27.41B USD
Book Value Of Debt20.93B USD20.06B USD
Cash and Marketable Securities1.05B USD1.74B USD
Number of Shares Outstanding404.12M--
Minority interests1.05B USD0 USD
Current Stock Price133.21 USD--
Effective Tax Rate19.00%--
Marginal Tax Rate25.00%--

Performance vs Industry

Revenue Growth
-16.14%
-7.12%Company
vs
9.01%Industry
Below Industry
Operating Margin
-14.31%
3.10%Company
vs
17.40%Industry
Below Industry
Phillips 66 faces challenges in both growth and profitability compared to industry peers, which may indicate competitive pressures or operational inefficiencies.

Terminal Value Analysis

Growth Rate
4.59%
Cost of Capital
8.83%
Return on Capital
8.83%
Reinvestment Rate
52.09%
Terminal value represents 55% of total enterprise value, based on 4.59% perpetual growth and 8.83% discount rate.

Equity Value Breakdown

ComponentValueType
Present Value (Terminal Value) 98.09B USD Add
Present Value (Cash Flow Over Next 10 Years) 79.45B USD Add
Value of Operating Assets 177.54B USD Sub-total
Debt 20.93B USD Subtract
Minority Interests 1.05B USD Subtract
Cash 1.05B USD Add
Value of Equity 156.60B USD Sub-total
Number of Shares 404.12M shares Divisor
Estimated Value per Share (Fair Value) 387.51 USD Total
Current Market Price 133.20 USD Reference

Financial Projections

Total FCF Present Value
79.45B USD
Avg Revenue Growth
0.81%
Avg Operating Margin
13.20%
Avg ROIC
25.05%
Year 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Terminal Year
REVENUE
Revenue127.80B USD126.79B USD125.79B USD124.80B USD123.82B USD124.17B USD125.87B USD128.95B USD133.49B USD139.63B USD146.05B USD
Growth Rate -3.88% -0.79% -0.79% -0.79% -0.79% 0.28% 1.36% 2.44% 3.52% 4.59% 4.59%
PROFITABILITY
Operating Income3.96B USD10.92B USD14.30B USD17.63B USD20.90B USD20.96B USD21.25B USD21.77B USD22.53B USD23.57B USD24.65B USD
Operating Margin 3.10% 8.61% 11.37% 14.12% 16.88% 16.88% 16.88% 16.88% 16.88% 16.88% 16.88%
EBIT (1-tax)3.21B USD8.84B USD11.58B USD14.28B USD16.93B USD16.73B USD16.70B USD16.85B USD17.17B USD17.68B USD18.49B USD
CASH FLOW
Reinvestment-513.83M USD-509.78M USD-505.76M USD-501.76M USD182.21M USD1.72B USD3.13B USD4.62B USD6.25B USD6.54B USD9.63B USD
Free Cash Flow3.72B USD9.35B USD12.09B USD14.78B USD16.75B USD15.00B USD13.56B USD12.22B USD10.91B USD11.13B USD8.85B USD
Terminal Value--------------------209.45B USD
Present Value3.46B USD8.10B USD9.74B USD11.07B USD11.68B USD9.70B USD8.12B USD6.76B USD5.56B USD5.21B USD—
EFFICIENCY
ROIC 6.78% 18.88% 24.99% 31.15% 37.34% 36.74% 35.34% 33.44% 31.21% 28.85% 8.83%
Cost of Capital 7.47% 7.47% 7.47% 7.47% 7.47% 7.74% 8.01% 8.28% 8.55% 8.83% 8.83%
Sales/Capital 1.96x 1.96x 1.96x 1.96x 1.96x 0.98x 0.98x 0.98x 0.98x 0.98x —

Profitability & Efficiency

Operating Margin (%)
ROIC (%)

Value Creation Analysis

ROIC (%)
Cost of Capital (%)

Operational Cash Flow Analysis

Free Cash Flow ($B)
Reinvestment ($B)