Valuation Overview

Growth Story

Over the next few years, revenue is expected to grow by 1.87%, lower than industry average of 15.81%.

Growth Trajectory

Profitability

In the growth phase company makes 25.44% profit on every dollar of sales, lower than industry average of 31.59%.

Profitability Trajectory

Risk Profile

Investors expect at least 6.32% return to justify the risk of holding stock.

Risk vs Return

Required Return (Cost of Capital) (%)
Return on Invested Capital (%)

Financial Health Overview

Enterprise Value
143.24B USD
Equity Value
125.05B USD
FCF Yield
79.04%
Average ROIC
11.91%
Cost of Capital
7.23%
P/E Ratio
11.25x
Financial MetricMost Recent 12 months (USD)Previous Year (USD)
Revenues57.80B USD54.74B USD
Operating Income or EBIT15.17B USD14.81B USD
Interest Expense1.17B USD1.11B USD
Book Value Of Equity65.57B USD64.80B USD
Book Value Of Debt23.53B USD24.32B USD
Cash and Marketable Securities5.34B USD6.11B USD
Number of Shares Outstanding1.25B--
Minority interests0 USD0 USD
Current Stock Price92.96 USD--
Effective Tax Rate32.00%--
Marginal Tax Rate25.00%--

Performance vs Industry

Revenue Growth
-10.24%
5.57%Company
vs
15.81%Industry
Below Industry
Operating Margin
-5.35%
26.24%Company
vs
31.59%Industry
Below Industry
ConocoPhillips faces challenges in both growth and profitability compared to industry peers, which may indicate competitive pressures or operational inefficiencies.

Terminal Value Analysis

Growth Rate
4.59%
Cost of Capital
8.83%
Return on Capital
8.83%
Reinvestment Rate
52.09%
Terminal value represents 57% of total enterprise value, based on 4.59% perpetual growth and 8.83% discount rate.

Equity Value Breakdown

ComponentValueType
Present Value (Terminal Value) 82.15B USD Add
Present Value (Cash Flow Over Next 10 Years) 61.09B USD Add
Value of Operating Assets 143.24B USD Sub-total
Debt 23.52B USD Subtract
Minority Interests — Subtract
Cash 5.34B USD Add
Value of Equity 125.05B USD Sub-total
Number of Shares 1.25B shares Divisor
Estimated Value per Share (Fair Value) 100.13 USD Total
Current Market Price 92.95 USD Reference

Financial Projections

Total FCF Present Value
61.09B USD
Avg Revenue Growth
2.41%
Avg Operating Margin
25.26%
Avg ROIC
11.91%
Year 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Terminal Year
REVENUE
Revenue57.46B USD58.54B USD59.63B USD60.74B USD61.88B USD63.37B USD65.24B USD67.53B USD70.27B USD73.50B USD76.88B USD
Growth Rate -0.58% 1.86% 1.86% 1.86% 1.86% 2.41% 2.95% 3.50% 4.05% 4.59% 4.59%
PROFITABILITY
Operating Income15.08B USD15.05B USD15.17B USD15.29B USD15.41B USD15.78B USD16.24B USD16.81B USD17.50B USD18.30B USD19.14B USD
Operating Margin 26.24% 25.70% 25.44% 25.17% 24.90% 24.90% 24.90% 24.90% 24.90% 24.90% 24.90%
EBIT (1-tax)10.25B USD10.23B USD10.31B USD10.39B USD10.47B USD10.95B USD11.50B USD12.14B USD12.88B USD13.72B USD14.36B USD
CASH FLOW
Reinvestment1.40B USD1.43B USD1.46B USD1.48B USD1.96B USD2.81B USD3.42B USD4.10B USD4.84B USD5.06B USD7.48B USD
Free Cash Flow8.84B USD8.79B USD8.85B USD8.90B USD8.51B USD8.14B USD8.07B USD8.04B USD8.03B USD8.66B USD6.87B USD
Terminal Value--------------------162.63B USD
Present Value8.32B USD7.78B USD7.36B USD6.97B USD6.27B USD5.61B USD5.18B USD4.78B USD4.41B USD4.37B USD—
EFFICIENCY
ROIC 12.24% 12.01% 11.91% 11.80% 11.70% 11.96% 12.19% 12.42% 12.64% 12.86% 8.83%
Cost of Capital 6.31% 6.31% 6.31% 6.31% 6.31% 6.82% 7.32% 7.82% 8.32% 8.83% 8.83%
Sales/Capital 0.76x 0.76x 0.76x 0.76x 0.76x 0.66x 0.66x 0.66x 0.66x 0.66x —

Profitability & Efficiency

Operating Margin (%)
ROIC (%)

Value Creation Analysis

ROIC (%)
Cost of Capital (%)

Operational Cash Flow Analysis

Free Cash Flow ($B)
Reinvestment ($B)