Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited

BPCL.BO•oil-gas-refining-marketing

Current Price

314.10INR

per share

Fair Value

1,856.20INR

Undervalued

83.1%

Valuation Overview

Growth Story

Over the next few years, revenue is expected to grow by 7.20%, lower than industry average of 9.02%.

Growth Trajectory

Profitability

In the growth phase company makes 12.60% profit on every dollar of sales, lower than industry average of 17.41%.

Profitability Trajectory

Risk Profile

Investors expect at least 6.37% return to justify the risk of holding stock.

Risk vs Return

Required Return (Cost of Capital) (%)

Return on Invested Capital (%)

Financial Health Overview

Enterprise Value

8.40T INR

Equity Value

7.93T INR

FCF Yield

336.76%

Average ROIC

26.62%

Cost of Capital

7.28%

P/E Ratio

6.70x

Financial Metric	Most Recent 12 months (INR)	Previous Year (INR)
Revenues	4.38T INR	4.47T INR
Operating Income or EBIT	270.40B INR	406.49B INR
Interest Expense	34.24B INR	41B INR
Book Value Of Equity	813.84B INR	756.35B INR
Book Value Of Debt	611.01B INR	545.99B INR
Cash and Marketable Securities	138.19B INR	102.66B INR
Number of Shares Outstanding	4.27B	--
Minority interests	0 INR	0 INR
Current Stock Price	314.10 INR	--
Effective Tax Rate	26.00%	--
Marginal Tax Rate	30.00%	--

Performance vs Industry

Revenue Growth

-10.92%

-1.90%Company

9.01%Industry

Below Industry

Operating Margin

-11.24%

6.17%Company

17.40%Industry

Below Industry

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited faces challenges in both growth and profitability compared to industry peers, which may indicate competitive pressures or operational inefficiencies.

Terminal Value Analysis

Growth Rate

4.65%

Cost of Capital

8.88%

Return on Capital

8.88%

Reinvestment Rate

52.36%

Terminal value represents 68% of total enterprise value, based on 4.65% perpetual growth and 8.88% discount rate.

Equity Value Breakdown

Component	Value	Type
Present Value (Terminal Value)	5.72T INR	Add
Present Value (Cash Flow Over Next 10 Years)	2.68T INR	Add
Value of Operating Assets	8.40T INR	Sub-total
Debt	611.00B INR	Subtract
Minority Interests	—	Subtract
Cash	138.18B INR	Add
Value of Equity	7.93T INR	Sub-total
Number of Shares	4.27B shares	Divisor
Estimated Value per Share (Fair Value)	1.85K INR	Total
Current Market Price	314.10 INR	Reference

Financial Projections

Total FCF Present Value

2.68T INR

Avg Revenue Growth

5.75%

Avg Operating Margin

14.02%

Avg ROIC

26.62%

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal Year
REVENUE
Revenue	4.69T INR	5.03T INR	5.39T INR	5.78T INR	6.20T INR	6.61T INR	7.02T INR	7.42T INR	7.81T INR	8.17T INR	8.55T INR
Growth Rate	7.19%	7.20%	7.20%	7.20%	7.20%	6.69%	6.18%	5.67%	5.16%	4.65%	4.65%
PROFITABILITY
Operating Income	289.87B INR	526.54B INR	680.14B INR	853.13B INR	1.04T INR	1.11T INR	1.18T INR	1.25T INR	1.31T INR	1.38T INR	1.44T INR
Operating Margin	6.17%	10.45%	12.59%	14.74%	16.88%	16.88%	16.88%	16.88%	16.88%	16.88%	16.88%
EBIT (1-tax)	214.50B INR	389.64B INR	503.30B INR	631.32B INR	775.17B INR	818.11B INR	859.19B INR	897.89B INR	933.68B INR	966.05B INR	1.01T INR
CASH FLOW
Reinvestment	172.43B INR	184.85B INR	198.16B INR	212.44B INR	211.60B INR	417.06B INR	406.26B INR	390.64B INR	370.14B INR	387.35B INR	529.39B INR
Free Cash Flow	42.07B INR	204.79B INR	305.13B INR	418.87B INR	563.57B INR	401.04B INR	452.93B INR	507.24B INR	563.53B INR	578.69B INR	481.58B INR
Terminal Value	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11.38T INR
Present Value	39.55B INR	180.99B INR	253.52B INR	327.18B INR	413.83B INR	275.54B INR	289.82B INR	300.88B INR	308.42B INR	290.89B INR	—
EFFICIENCY
ROIC	16.67%	26.70%	30.61%	34.27%	37.72%	36.10%	32.02%	29.06%	26.82%	25.09%	8.88%
Cost of Capital	6.37%	6.37%	6.37%	6.37%	6.37%	6.87%	7.37%	7.87%	8.37%	8.88%	8.88%
Sales/Capital	1.96x	1.96x	1.96x	1.96x	1.96x	0.98x	0.98x	0.98x	0.98x	0.98x	—

Profitability & Efficiency

Operating Margin (%)

ROIC (%)

Value Creation Analysis

ROIC (%)

Cost of Capital (%)

Operational Cash Flow Analysis

Free Cash Flow (₹B)

Reinvestment (₹B)